Buying or Selling? Our Writers Predict 2024 CrossFit Games Outcomes, Part 1
The overall picture is starting to take shape for the 2024 CrossFit Games.
We are heading into the oppressive Texas heat (and the comfortably climate-controlled Dickies Arena) to watch athletes once again tackle Dave Castro’s programming.
Sure, we know a couple of events, but everything else is up in the air.
- So, why not take this opportunity to think big and consider what might happen this season?
We grabbed some of our favorite analysts in the CrossFit space and asked them if they are buying or selling these possible CrossFit Games outcomes.
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Buy or Sell – No Rookie Woman Finishes in the Top 10
Scotty Freymond (Writer, Morning Chalk Up) – Buy
In the last three years, three women have accomplished this feat.
- Mal O’Brien in 2021, and Emma Lawson and Alexis Raptis in 2022.
All three had competed in the teen division before their rookie year, which gave them the experience they needed on the big stage.
Although there are some strong rookies like Grace Walton and Aimee Cringle, there are too many experienced women at the top.
I believe it will be the second year in a row that we don’t see a rookie in the top 10.
- Worth noting: My pick for the rookie woman to finish the highest is Hattie Kanyo.
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Dave Charlton (Co-founder, Fran Lung Analytics & Writer, Morning Chalk Up) – Buy
While the number of women from the 2023 Games not competing/advancing this season has been a major 2024 storyline, nine out of the top 12 women from the 2023 Games will be in Fort Worth, TX.
- Plus, Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr, Brooke Wells, and Haley Adams are all making their return after finishing in the top 10 at the 2022 Games.
It’ll be challenging for a rookie to make the top 15 this year, never mind the top 10.
Mike Halpin (Founder, Known & Knowable & Morning Chalk Up contributor) – Buy
The top 10 is stacked on the women’s side, especially when you add back three of the best in the sport: Brooke Wells (fifth in 2022), Haley Adams (ninth in 2022), and of course the six-time champ, Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr, who will be gunning for her seventh title of Fittest on Earth.
- To add to that, look at the North America East Semifinal at Syndicate Crown: No rookies claimed the 11 CrossFit Games spots that were up for grabs. And the women who did qualify are all killers.
That’s nothing against the 12 Games rookies at all.
- I think an athlete like Grace Walton, who won the Torian Pro, or Aimee Cringle, who placed fifth in Europe, has real potential to crack the top ten, but the smart bet is to buy this one.
Buy or Sell – Five Different Men Wear the Leader’s Jersey
Scotty Freymond – Sell
I’m selling this based on the past, but I hope I’m wrong.
- I believe at least five men can win the CrossFit Games, and I hope the leader’s jersey gets passed around like a joint at a Snoop Dogg concert.
But when someone gets out in front after the first few events, they usually hold on for most, if not all, of the weekend.
Dave Charlton – Sell
There are two reasons I’m selling.
- Only twice in the history of the CrossFit Games have five men worn the leader’s jersey in a single year (2009 and 2014). Even in super competitive years like this one, it just doesn’t happen.
- The “Run Swim” event is going to create some separation between the favorites out of the gate. It’ll take time for the non-swimmers to earn back the points they lose on this event, which will likely limit the leaders on days one and two. Also, by Saturday, we’ll probably see the favorites filter out to a small few who have a realistic shot at the title.
Mike Halpin – Sell
I think it’ll be close, but not five.
The way I see it, I would bet on Brent Fikowski or James Sprague for “Event 1: Run Swim.”
- As we have seen, over the last few years with Jonne Koski, the winner of event one will hand over the red and white jersey by the end of day one to then be passed around to one or two more athletes, maybe three.
In 2022, Ricky Garard kept the jersey and only handed it off to Justin Medeiros after Event 9, so two men total wore it.
Last year, Jonne Koski won “Ride,” the first event, and then Roman Khrennikov took the lead position after the “Alpaca Redux” and kept it until his injury on the first event of Sunday where Jeffrey Adler took it. Three total.
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Buy or Sell – Invictus Goes Back-to-Back and Wins the 2024 Affiliate Cup
Scotty Freymond – Buy
It will be a fun battle between CrossFit Invictus and Peak 360 CrossFit (especially the rivalry between close friends Chandler Smith and Noah Ohlsen), and we can’t count out Raw Iron CrossFit Mayhem Thunder from down under with all of their Games experience.
But Invictus will prevail.
Dave Charlton – Buy
Comparing Semifinals scores between Invictus and a short list of competitors (Peak 360 CrossFit, Crossfit Prestanda Kriger, Crossfit Walleye Orka, Raw Iron Crossfit Mayhem Thunder, and Crossfit Torian Mayhem), shows that the Sea of Green had the top score in three out of the five events.
If you throw out the run event because of the different courses, Invictus took three out of four.
It’s hard to beat a team that wins 75 percent of the events.
Mike Halpin – Sell
With only Joshua Al-Chamaa back from 2023, I think the team has the skills but not the history that Invictus had when all four team members went back to back in 2022 and 2023 to take the Affiliate Cup.
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With a level playing field when it comes to team history, I look to the competitive field, and one team sticks out well above the rest.
I believe the team from Kriger Training / Peak 360 of Noah Ohlsen, Tola Morakinyo, Matilde Garnes, and Lena Richter, all of whom have been to the Games multiple times as either individuals or team athletes, is the squad to watch.
CrossFit Invictus will give team Peak 360 CrossFit a real run for their money for the podium and the Affiliate Cup this year in Fort Worth, but Peak 360 will end up on top, for what may be the last time the Teams are at the CrossFit Games.
More 2024 CrossFit Games Coverage
- How to Watch the 2024 CrossFit Games
- 5 CrossFit Games Storylines You Should Pay Attention To
- Will One of These 3 Veteran Women Finally Get to the CrossFit Games Podium This Summer?
Featured image: @crossfitgames / Instagram