Will Any CrossFit Games Rookies Finish in the Top 10 in 2024?

Rookies. 

They’re a new name to cheer on. Underestimated talent that, beyond a few days at Semifinals or rumblings from some local or regional competitions, the world hasn’t yet had the chance to watch perform. 

Some years, we can anticipate which of these newcomers will make a splash. Other times, it’s not so clear-cut.

The rookies in the 2024 class may have won the teen division or excelled on a team with three to five of their training partners, but we haven’t seen them stand alone on the individual stage yet.

• The overall performance of the rookie class is always hard to prognosticate.

They’re educated guesses at best. 

A teen athlete could destroy their competition against other teens, but they may be lambs fed to hungry wolves when entering the Individual Division for the first time. 

A team athlete could be a podium contender with their comrades to help carry the weight while carrying the weight alone could become a different challenge.

The rookies that shine seem to do so against the odds, and it sets them on a hero’s journey for the years to come. 

• No better way to make instant fans for life than coming in looking like David and beating Goliath. 

Without further delay, we ask the same question we ask every year: Will any CrossFit Games rookies finish in the top 10 this year?

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What History Says

Here are the top rookies in each class throughout Games history: 

• 2009 – Kristan Clever – 4th | Mikko Salo – 1st
• 2010 – Jessica Pamanian – 4th | Rich Froning – 2nd
• 2011 – Jenny Labaw – 6th | Josh Bridges – 2nd
• 2012 – Talayna Fortunato – 3rd | Scott Panchik – 4th
• 2013 – Alessandra Pichelli – 4th | Garret Fisher – 5th
• 2014 – Emily Bridgers – 6th | Mathew Fraser – 2nd
• 2015 – Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr – 2nd | Alex Vigneault – 11th
• 2016 – Kristi Eramo O’Connell – 8th | Patrick Vellner – 3rd
• 2017 – Jamie Simmonds (Greene) – 8th | Jason Smith – 10th
• 2018 – Laura Horvath – 2nd | Willy Georges – 9th
• 2019 – Haley Adams – 6th | Matt McLeod – 7th
• 2020 – Andrea Nisler – 10th | Samuel Cournoyer – 10th
• 2021 – Mal O’Brien – 7th | Lazar Dukic – 9th
• 2022 – Emma Lawson – 6th | Nick Mathew – 14th
• 2023 – Olivia Kerstetter – 16th | Jelle Hoste – 10th

Two things stand out from this list.

First of all, it’s a “who’s who” of athletes we know and love in the Sport of Fitness: Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr, Mat Fraser, Rich Froning, Pat Vellner, Laura Horvath, Scott Panchik, Josh Bridges, Mikko Salo, and Kristan Clever to name a few. 

• Hall of Famers, who defeated Goliath in their first year in Aromas, Carson, Madison, and soon Fort Worth.

Second, and maybe more importantly for the discussion at hand, only three times from 2009 to 2023 have we seen the top male or female rookie not make the top 10 for their division:

• 2015 – Alex Vigneault was 11th, missing the top 10 by six points.
• 2022 – Nick Mathew was the top rookie in 14th (and he won two events!).
• 2023 – Olivia Kerstetter became the youngest rookie to win an event, “Echo Thruster Final,” and finished 16th overall.

Even so, they all still finished in the top 50 percent of the field — no small task.

Outside of those three instances, a rookie in both divisions has made the top 10 much more often than just one rookie alone.

• The 2010 Games had five women rookies in the top 10: Jessica Pamanian – 4th; Julie Foucher – 5th; Heather Bergeron – 8th; Camille Leblanc-Bazinet – 9th; and Michelle Kinney – 10th.

In 12 of the 15 years we looked at, both the Men’s and Women’s Divisions had a rookie in the top 10.

Will There Be a 2024 Rookie In the Top 10? 

To assess that possibility, we need to assess the rookie field:

Men:

The breakdown: While current stats matter, longevity in the sport and “time under tension” (i.e., pressure in competition, for our purposes) stick out to me here.  

Relatively new names to the everyday fan have all been in the sport for four to nine years on the men’s side.

• Jack Rozema has both. In a comparison of the Semifinal athlete’s times across all regions, Rozema finishes ninth worldwide, six spots better than the next rookie, Aniol Ekai. 

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Many rookies can shine in their home gyms and in virtual competitions, but that may change when the “3..2…1…Go” happens in live competition. 

• Harry Lightfoot and Victor Hoffer out of Europe both have around top 20 Open and Quarterfinals stats this season but 33rd and 24th when stacked up in Semifinals.

Note: This “Cross-Semifinal” comparison does include Event 1, which had variable distances and types of running.

A lot of eyes are on the rabbit farmer from West Virginia, Austin Hatfield, to shine in his rookie season at the Games. 

• Hatfield has top-20 finishes in both the Open and “Cross-Semifinals” this season already and won the Crash Crucible in October of last year against three-time Games athlete Colten Mertens. Oh, and he just told Dave Castro he has a 1:47 Fran Time!

Women:

The breakdown: Four of the 12 rookie women who will compete in Fort Worth have already been to the Games at some point in their careers. 

• Kyra Milligan was on the Mayhem team last year; Linda Keesman was on a team in 2019; Lexi Neely competed as a teen in 2018; and Andreia Pinheiro took second place in the Women’s 40-44 Division last year. Pinheiro has kids the same age as some of the other competitors.

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This Games experience can matter a lot for athletes as they have a better sense of what a week competing at that level feels like. That the Games are in a new city and at a new venue will negate some of that. 

• Grace Walton became a CrossFit household name this season by taking second place in the Open and then having continued success by winning the Oceania Semifinal at Torian Pro. 

Grace’s performance at Semifinals when compared against all the Semifinal athletes, is 30th overall. While that’s a concern, at live competition, athletes need only to beat the competitors in the lane next to them and the heats before them to move on. She very well has more in the tank, a lot more.

In the cross-Semifinal comparison, Aimee Cringle jumps off the page. 

• Cringle has competed in CrossFit for seven years. If you look at any of her stats and finishes from the last four seasons, it’s a chart that tracks up and to the right in a very positive direction. 

Those stats can all be impressive, but the new athletes may just be walking into a meat grinder here. 

The Sport of Fitness has grown a lot since even the days of Fraser or Horvath showing up and taking a podium finish in their rookie year. 

The Big Picture

The athlete fields may be stacked against the rookies, as several Games veterans who missed the 2023 season are back for 2024, especially on the women’s side.

There are only 10 spots. 

If one of these athletes were to jump into the top 10, the math says you would need to drop someone out. Who would you pick to drop out of these names:

Top 10 2023 CrossFit Games athletes returning in 2024, listed with 2023 Games overall finish:

Men

• Jeffrey Adler (1st)
• Patrick Vellner (2nd)
• Roman Khrennikov (3rd)
• Brent Fikowski (4th)
• Dallin Pepper (5th)
• Jay Crouch (8th)
• Lazar Dukic (9th)
• Jelle Hoste (10th)
• Björgvin Karl Gudmundsson (11th)
• Bayley Martin (12th)
• Justin Medeiros (13th) (I know I said “10,” but we can’t leave a two-time champ off this list)

Women

• Laura Horvath (1st)
• Emma Lawson (2nd)
• Arielle Loewen (3rd)
• Gabriela Migala (4th)
• Alex Gazan (5th)
• Alexis Raptis (6th)
• Danielle Brandon (9th)
• Emma Tall (11th)
• Emily Rolfe (12th)
• Karin Freyova (14th)

Both lists of returning top-10 athletes should be immediately considered for the top 10 again. 

• This is before you add athletes like six-time Fittest on Earth Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr, and young veterans of the sport Haley Adams and Brooke Wells.

At the start, I said it was often an educated guess as to how a rookie class will perform at the Games, and this year, smart money says it will be a tough task for one of them to break through to the top 10. 

We will find out soon enough.

More 2024 CrossFit Games Coverage

• How to Watch the 2024 CrossFit Games
• 5 CrossFit Games Storylines You Should Pay Attention To
• Will One of These 3 Veteran Women Finally Get to the CrossFit Games Podium This Summer?

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