2024 CrossFit Games Predictions: Women’s Podium Picks and Dark Horses
At first glance, the women’s story at the 2024 CrossFit Games might not seem as exciting as last year when the podium seemed more wide open and up for grabs than ever.
Remind me: Last season, the six-time and reigning champion Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr had just had a baby and was sitting out the season.
But also, the second-place finisher from the year before, Mal O’Brien, was out to take care of her mental health.
- Further, three other notable perennial podium contenders — Kara Saunders, Haley Adams, and Brooke Wells — were also missing from the lineup.
This year is a bit of the same old, same old. Toomey-Orr is looking fitter than ever and has to be considered the overwhelming favorite to take the title and become a seven-time champion.
That’s our prediction to take the top spot: Tia wins and makes history once again. Here’s how we think the rest of the competition will shake out.
Our Other Podium Picks
Second Place: Laura Horvath
Last year’s champion and four-time podium finisher Laura Horvath hopes to make it difficult on Toomey-Orr. Fresh off a victory at the recent Europe Semifinals, Horvath is the obvious pick to take a second podium spot.
The question is more about whether or not Horvath can actually dethrone Toomey-Orr.
- She was able to do just that at the Rogue Invitational last fall, but Toomey-Orr was less than six months postpartum at the time, so we’re giving the edge back to the six-time champ in Fort Worth, TX, next week and are predicting Horvath to finish second.
Third Place: Emma Lawson
Not to be outdone, the 19-year-old from Canada is almost as likely to podium as Horvath.
- Sixth in her rookie season in 2022 and second behind only Horvath last year, Lawson knows how to step it up at the Games, and it’s not a stretch to predict her return to the podium in 2024.
Dark Horses
That being said, sports are unpredictable. So, while we’re confident in our three podium picks, we might not go three for three in our predictions.
There are a host of other very fit women in the field who hope we’re wrong, too, all of whom can be considered podium threats if the chips fall the right way. They include:
Gabi Migala
Poland’s Gabi Migala stood on the podium as a teenager in 2016 but hasn’t been able to break through as an individual. She’s been close with multiple top 10s, however, including a fourth-place overall placement last year.
- Migala has two other top-10 finishes at the Games — sixth in 2021 and eighth in 2022 — and she’s still only 25 years old, making her a prime dark horse candidate.
Arielle Loewen
OK, so maybe Loewen should be considered more than just a dark horse, as the now 30-year-old mother finished third last season.
Unassuming and quiet, but also experienced and consistent, Loewen — third at this season’s North America West Semifinals — can earn her second career top-three spot next week in Fort Worth if others falter.
Danielle Brandon
Brandon has competed at the CrossFit Games five times and has never placed lower than 15th.
- Her top finish was fourth in 2022, but the podium has continued to elude her.
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Her former coach, Justin Cotler of Underdogs Athletics, often called Brandon the most naturally gifted athlete he had ever worked with, both physically and athletically. That said, she has never quite put it all together at the Games.
Could this be Brandon’s year to live up to the hype?
Alex Gazan
Cotler’s newest podium hopeful is 22-year-old Alex Gazan. Twenty-fourth in her rookie season in 2022, Gazan vaulted herself to fifth overall last summer, earning Most Improved honors at the 2023 Games.
Earlier this year, Cotler explained that one of the biggest hurdles for Gazan in the past was her confidence.
- “It’s hard to accept who you are and who you were,” Cotler told the Morning Chalk Up. He thinks she has the potential to be a bulletproof athlete, like five-time men’s champ Mat Fraser and Toomey-Orr.
Gazan might just be getting closer to being bulletproof.
- “I’m beginning to believe it,” Gazan told the Morning Chalk Up in an interview this year. “Sometimes your brain has to catch up to your body and your abilities.”
That confidence was on full display at this year’s North America West Semifinals when she finished second behind Abigail Domit and logged an event record.
Gazan is a dark horse, but if the stars are aligned and the programming is right — and if Gazan believes she can — she has a chance to finish in the top three.
Don’t Forget About
Brooke Wells
After missing the Games last season for the first time in nine years, the eight-time Games veteran Wells is back.
- Her best finish at the Games so far has been fifth, a feat she accomplished in both 2020 and 2022.
The question remains: Is the 29-year-old winding down? Or does she have another podium push in her?
Alexis Raptis
Alexis Raptis is a bit like Loewen: quiet, not flashy, but she’s solidly consistent and gets the job done.
- And like Migala, Raptis experienced the podium as a teenager (second in 2016) and has finished in the top 10 in both her appearances as an individual: 10th in 2022 and sixth in 2023.
- Most recently, Raptis finished second at the North America East Semifinals, behind only Toomey-Orr and ahead of Lawson.
The bottom line: Raptis should not be forgotten about in the podium conversation heading into Fort Worth next week.
One More Athlete
Grace Walton
OK, so she is probably more of a long shot than a dark horse, but we need to mention Australia’s Grace Walton, who is competing at the Games for the first time this summer.
The 23-year-old won the worldwide CrossFit Open this season and finished 21st in the world in Quarterfinals. She went on to win the Oceania Semifinals during the first week of Semifinals.
Worth noting: Again, Walton is a long shot at the podium, but an Aussie has done it before. That Aussie was Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr, who finished second in her rookie debut at the CrossFit Games in 2015.
The Big Picture
If we were risking our own money, we’d go with Toomey-Orr first, Horvath second, and Lawson third.
- But realistically, we see six or seven other ladies with a shot at the podium: Migala, Loewen, Brandon, Gazan, Wells, Raptis, and possibly Walton.
They might have an uphill battle to climb to knock the top three women off, but it’s sports, and with sports, there’s always a catch. Either way, it will certainly make for a dramatic women’s competition in Fort Worth.
More 2024 CrossFit Games Coverage
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- Will One of These 3 Veteran Women Finally Get to the CrossFit Games Podium This Summer?
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