8 Way-Too-Early 2024 CrossFit Games Predictions
With three weeks of intense CrossFit Semifinals action behind us, we can finally take a breath.
Ok, breath taken.
Now, bring on the 2024 CrossFit Games!
With less than two months until the big show, let’s take a look at some early predictions.
These eight predictions are based on 2024 results, and, well, let’s call them “educated hunches.”
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1. Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr Will Win Her Seventh Title. But Not By Much
After a dominant performance at the North America East Semifinal, it is easy to think Toomey-Orr will run away with the win in Fort Worth. But Laura Horvath won’t give up her crown easily.
- Out of the five comparable Semifinals events this year, Horvath beat Toomey on two of them while setting the worldwide event records. These two incredible athletes will provide the races that everyone wants to see in August.
2. Abbie Domit Will Continue Her Upward Trajectory
Domit’s first CrossFit Open was just three years ago. Since then, she has climbed the ranks quickly, placing 26th as a rookie at the 2023 Games.
- With a year of Games experience under her belt and a win at the 2024 West Coast Classic, a top-15 finish is in the cards for her sophomore season.
3. Justin Medeiros Will Become the First Individual to Reclaim the Title of Fittest on Earth.
We have yet to see a CrossFit Games champion lose the title and then come back to win again. On the men’s side, this has a lot to do with Rich Froning Jr. and Mat Fraser retiring from individual competition after winning four and five in a row, respectively.
- As the sport grows, however, the field continues to improve. There are legitimately six to eight athletes in the men’s competition who could win the Games if things go their way. Parity in the sport is at an all-time high, and the battle for the top will be epic.
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It takes extreme consistency to win the Games, and aside from a rough start last year, Medeiros has been Mr. Consistent. During his two-year reign, he only had two event finishes outside of the top 10 each year.
- Toomey-Orr will also accomplish this feat. Her circumstances were quite different, however, as she stepped away from competition for a year to have a baby.
That being said, no one has ever won back the title, regardless of circumstances. We will never forget Annie Thorisdottir’s incredible comeback to finish third in 2021.
4. The Rookie of the Year Will Be From Europe
In 2024, more than a third (35 percent) of the European Games contingent (four men and three women) will be newcomers.
- Aniol Ekai had the highest finish at Semifinals, notching fourth place for the men. Aimee Cringle placed fifth for the women.
Grace Walton will have something to say about that. She mounted a steady comeback to win the Oceania Semifinal and is primed for a breakout performance at the Games.
- Other rookies, such as Austin Hatfield from North America East, Chris Ibarra, and Hattie Kanyo from North America West, will also be carrying momentum to Fort Worth.
5. Alex Gazan Will Finish in the Top 5 Again
This may not seem like a stretch after finishing fifth last year in Madison, but the field is arguably stronger this year. Gazan has been working on her weaknesses and is starting to believe she can win. This makes her extremely dangerous.
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- Her coach at Underdogs Athletics, Justin Cotler, will tell you it is only a matter of time before she stands on top of the podium.
6. Dallin Pepper Will Stand on the Podium
The 22-year-old has been improving every year since winning the teen division multiple times. We saw him push the reigning champ at the Syndicate Crown, finishing three points behind Jeff Adler and three points ahead of Roman Khrennikov.
- Worth noting: If you compare scores of just the podium finishers across all Semifinals, Dallin Pepper would come out on top.
7. Jelle Hoste Will Finish in the Top 5
Hoste placed 10th at last year’s Games as a rookie, and many believed his performance should have earned him the Rookie of the Year award.
- For the 2024 season, he quit his full-time job to go all in on CrossFit. The decision appears to be paying off, with a second-place finish at the Europe Semifinal. Be ready for some home runs in Fort Worth.
8. Three Men From Oceania Will finish in the Top 10
Ricky Garard, Jay Crouch, and Bayley Martin shifted places on the leaderboard multiple times throughout the 2024 Oceania Semifinal by Torian Pro. Each one figuratively wore the leader’s jersey at least once, and they will all be contenders at the Games this year.
- Garard did not compete at the 2023 CrossFit Games due to injury but placed third in 2022 after returning from a four-year ban.
Crouch finished eighth at the 2023 Games. Martin finished 12th as a rookie.
The Bottom Line
It is always fun to speculate. Without knowing the programming of the 2024 Games, we can only base our predictions on past performances and gut feelings.
We can be sure of one thing, though. Every year, we are surprised and entertained by the fittest people on earth as they put everything on the line for their time to shine.
Featured image: @crossfitgames / Instagram