Speculation abounds. As of the date of this article’s publication, the 2024 Olympics are a mere 11 days away. After three full years since weightlifters took to the stage in Tokyo, fans are eager to see new records set, medals won, and history made.
Which begs the question — who the heck is going to win the 2024 Olympics in weightlifting? After all, the qualification pathway to Paris was particularly grueling; a sieve that separated the 10 best athletes in each weight class from the rest of the world.
[Roster: Every Weightlifter Competing at the 2024 Olympics]
BarBend teamed up with Team USA athlete and 2020 Olympian Caine Wilkes to figure out who has the best chances of winning gold in Paris this summer. Here are our predictions, and stay tuned for BarBend’s live coverage of all weight class events at the 2024 Olympics in Paris, which officially begins on Jul. 26!
2024 Olympics Predictions | Men’s Weightlifting
Below, you’ll find BarBend and Wilkes’ podium predictions for each Men’s weightlifting event at the 2024 Olympics, as well as the finalized top-10 athlete roster published by the International Weightlifting Federation (IWF). The athlete lists do not include weightlifters who qualified for the summer Games via continental, refugee, or universality slots.
The notation below reads as “Athlete Name (Country): Highest qualification Total”.
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Men’s 61-Kilogram
- Li Fabin (CHN): 314
- Hampton Morris (USA): 303
- Sergio Massidda (ITA): 302
- Eko Yuli Irawan (INA): 300
- John Ceniza (PHI): 300
- Theerapong Silachai (THA): 299
- Shota Mishvelidze (GEO): 298
- Bin Kasdan Mohamad Aniq (MAS): 296
- Trinh Van Vinh (VIE): 294
- Ivan Dimov (BUL): 293
Caine Wilkes
- Gold: Li Fabin (CHN)
- Silver: Hampton Morris (USA)
- Bronze: Sergio Massidda (ITA)
“As the defending Olympic Champion, Fabin is the clear favorite due to his qualification Total,” says Wilkes. “Although it’s a tight race for the remaining medals, Morris is my pick for silver. He’s really hit his stride towards the end of this quad.”
Wilkes continues: “I expect Morris to hit a decent snatch that will set him up for a big clean & jerk later on. Massidda has also been consistently improving over the quad and hit a 317-kilogram Total recently at a slightly heavier body weight.”
BarBend
- Gold: Li Fabin (CHN)
- Silver: Sergio Massidda (ITA)
- Bronze: Hampton Morris (USA)
We agree with Wilkes for the most part, but we’re actually a bit warmer on Italy’s Massidda. He’s made tremendous progress in his clean & jerk in the last few months, jumping from 162 to 172 kilograms between February and April while weighing around 65 kilos.
If he can retain that top-end strength while cutting to 61, he’s in great shape for silver thanks to his consistency in hitting mid-130-kilogram snatches.
Men’s 73-Kilogram
- Rizki Juniansyah (INA): 365
- Shi Zhiyong (CHN): 356
- Masanori Miyamoto (JPN): 350
- Weeraphon Wichuma (THA): 349
- Bozhidar Andreev (BUL): 348
- Bak Joohyo (KOR): 345
- Ritvars Suharevs (LAT): 341
- Muhammed Furkan Ozbek (TUR): 341
- Julio Mayora (VEN): 339
- Luis Mosquera (COL): 337
Caine Wilkes
- Gold: Rizki Juniansyah (INA)
- Silver: Shi Zhiyong (CHN)
- Bronze: Masanori Miyamoto (JPN)
Wilkes thinks it’s “hard to bet” against Shi Zhiyong, but “Juniansyah surprised everybody at the World Cup when he kicked his teammate, Rahmat Erwin Abdullah, off the leaderboard. I expect [Zhiyong] to be competitive in the snatch but fall behind in the clean & jerk.”
“I see a three-way battle for the bronze medal,” says Wilkes. “Although Wichuma and Andreev look capable of a big Total, whose performance at the IWF World Cup gave him a lot of momentum going into the Olympics. This battle may come down to smart decisions made in the back room by the athletes and their coaches.”
BarBend
- Gold: Rizki Juniansyah (INA)
- Silver: Shi Zhiyong (CHN)
- Bronze: Bozhidar Andreev (BUL)
We concur with Wilkes on the Zhiyong “situation” — China’s powerhouse athlete has battled a slew of damaging injuries since before his win in Tokyo. He’s looked good in training, but doesn’t have the consistency in the clean & jerk that Juniansyah displays at or above 190 kilograms.
We like Andreev for bronze, though. Miyamoto had the meet of his life at the World Cup, but failed to crack a 340 Total at his three prior competitions. Andreev, meanwhile, has Totaled 348 and 349 at his last two meets, and is a notoriously fierce competitor. He’s riding a high from his home-turf win at the European Championships in Sofia, which should buoy his spirits heading into Paris.
Men’s 89-Kilogram
- Karlos Nasar (BUL): 396
- Yeison Lopez (COL): 392
- Keydomar Vallenilla Sanchez (VEN): 385
- Mir Mostafa Javadi (IRI): 384
- Karim Abokahla (EGY): 381
- Antonino Pizzolato (ITA): 380
- Marin Robu (MDA): 378
- Andranik Karapetyan (ARM): 377
- Yu Dongju (KOR): 375
Caine Wilkes
- Gold: Karlos Nasar (BUL)
- Silver: Yeison Lopez (COL)
- Bronze: Keydomar Vallenilla-Sanchez (VEN)
“Nasar is the clear frontrunner and has been a top contender throughout the qualification period,” Wilkes remarks. “Lopez may beat him in the snatch, but Nasar will easily overtake him in the clean & jerk and then some.”
BarBend
- Gold: Karlos Nasar (BUL)
- Silver: Yeison Lopez (COL)
- Bronze: Antonino Pizzolato (ITA)
As before, we think Wilkes is on the money with his gold and silver-medal predictions. Lopez rattled the board with his return to international weightlifting last year, but thus far lacks the raw strength required to clean & jerk more than 210 kilograms — a weight Nasar will probably hit in the back room or on his opening attempt.
But for bronze, we’re going to go out on a limb and back Italy’s Pizzolato. Pizzolato was hot off a podium finish in Tokyo when he set the inaugural world record in the clean & jerk as an 89-kilogram athlete early in ’22.
He’s failed to pace with Nasar, Lopez, and China’s Li Dayin since, but we also watched him valiantly and confidently clean 222 kilograms at this year’s European Championships. If Pizzolato can snatch 175 kilograms or more, he’ll position himself to make a big jump in the second half of the session for a medal.
Men’s 102-Kilogram
- Liu Huanhua (CHN): 413
- Garik Karapetyan (ARM): 401
- Meso Hassona (QAT): 400
- Akbar Djuraev (UZB): 400
- Yauheni Tsikhantsou (AIN): 400
- Jang Yeonhak (KOR): 399
- Lesman Paredes Montano (BRN): 398
- Davranbek Hasanbayev (TKM): 392
- Irakli Chkheidze (GEO): 391
- Don Opeloge (SAM): 391
Caine Wilkes
- Gold: Liu Huanhua (CHN)
- Silver: Meso Hassona (QAT)
- Bronze: Garik Karapetyan (ARM)
“China’s Huanhua is the favorite for gold. His clean & jerks routinely pass 230 kilograms, which gives him a big edge,” says Wilkes. “After that, things are much less clear. I like Hassona for silver — he has a strong clean & jerk and if he’s healthy in Paris, he may be able to keep up with Huanhua.”
BarBend
- Gold: Liu Huanhua (CHN)
- Silver: Akbar Djuraev (UZB)
- Bronze: Meso Hassona (QAT)
Huanhua is the only sure-fire podium athlete of the 102-kilogram pack barring a bomb-out, which he’s not had — in fact, Huanhua has made 75% of all competition attempts in IWF-recognized events.
Beyond that, we think people are sleeping on Djuraev. After his unsuccessful attempt at bulking up to the super-heavyweights, the 109-kilogram Olympic Champion made a late weight cut to the 102s for the 2024 Asian Championships, where he Totaled 400.
It’s unknown whether Djuraev’s performance suffers dramatically from cutting weight, but what is certain is that he has more experience handling ultra-heavy weights than Huanhua or Hassona.
Men’s +102-Kilogram
- Lasha Talakhadze (GEO): 474
- Gor Minasyan (BRN): 464
- Varazdat Lalayan (ARM): 463
- Ali Davoudi (IRI): 454
- Man Asaad (SYR): 445
- Mohamed Elsayed (EGY): 433
- Ali Rubaiawi (IRQ): 427
- Walid Bidani (ALG): 426
- Eishiro Murakami (JPN): 421
- David Liti (NZL): 413
Caine Wilkes
- Gold: Lasha Talakhadze (GEO)
- Silver: Gor Minasyan (BRN)
- Bronze: Varazdat Lalayan (ARM)
“Maybe it’s because I compete in this category against these athletes, but I feel this is the most cut-and-dry,” Wilkes says. “You don’t bet against Talakhadze.”
Continuing, Wilkes notes that he “likes Minasyan for second place; a 460+ Total is pretty routine for him. Lalayan has shown promise in this quad, but I think Minasyan has the tenure to stay ahead of him.”
BarBend
- Gold: Lasha Talakhadze (GEO)
- Silver: Varazdat Lalayan (ARM)
- Bronze: Gor Minasyan (BRN)
“You don’t bet against Talakhadze,” is right. However, last month we did wonder if he is strong enough to win the Olympics. Luckily, his recent training footage has indicated the Georgian giant is preparing well for what fans speculate will be his final Olympics.
However, we’re big fans of Lalayan. He’s younger than either Talakhadze or Minasyan, is more explosive than the latter, and has impressively consistent technique in the snatch. He’s a bit wobbly in the clean & jerks, but his best lifts from the quad — 215 kilos in the snatch and 253 in the jerk, from different meets — are theoretically enough to make even Talakhadze a bit nervous.
2024 Olympics Predictions | Women’s Weightlifting
These are BarBend and Wilkes’ podium predictions for each Women’s weightlifting event at the 2024 Olympics, as well as the finalized top-10 athlete roster published by the IWF. The athlete lists do not include weightlifters who qualified for the summer Games via continental, refugee, or universality slots.
The notation below reads as “Athlete Name (Country): Highest qualification Total”.
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Women’s 49-Kilogram
- Hou Zhihui (CHN): 217
- Mirabai Chanu (IND): 200
- Surodchana Khambao (THA): 200
- Jourdan Delacruz (USA): 200
- Mihaela Cambei (ROU): 199
- Rira Suzuki (JPN): 197
- Nina Sterckx (BEL): 193
- Katherin Echandia Zarate (VEN): 193
- Fang Wan-Ling (TPE): 192
- Beatriz Piron Candelario (DOM): 191
Caine Wilkes
- Gold: Hou Zhihui (CHN)
- Silver: Jourdan Delacruz (USA)
- Bronze: Surodchana Khambao (THA)
From Wilkes: “Zhihui’s 17-kilogram Total lead on the rest of the board makes her a clear favorite. She should win with her opening lifts. But any of the next four athletes can suck up the two remaining medals.”
“I like Delacruz for second place,” Wilkes says of his Tokyo 2020 teammate. “She’s been recovering from an injury but looks primed and ready for a big Total after clean & jerking 114 kilograms at the 2024 National Championships.”
After that, Wilkes is endorsing Thailand’s Khambao for bronze. “Chanu Totaled 200 early in the quad, but has since trended downward. Cambei could also sneak in, but her clean & jerk isn’t quite as strong as the others.”
BarBend
- Gold: Hou Zhihui (CHN)
- Silver: Jourdan Delacruz (USA)
- Bronze: Mihaela Cambei (ROU)
We agree with Wilkes on gold and silver; Zhihui has put too much airspace between herself and any other 49-kilogram weightlifter save for her own teammate and North Korea’s athlete, who was not eligible for Paris.
When it comes to bronze, we’re throwing down for Cambei, who has steadily built momentum over the quad. She’s Totaled 194 kilos or more since Worlds in ‘22, while Khambao and Chanu each have logged results just a bit lower or failed to perform altogether, opting only to weigh in at big meets.
Cambei has hot hands, having taken every opportunity to compete on international stages throughout the quad and increasing her Total basically linearly along the way.
Women’s 59-Kilogram
- Luo Shifang (CHN): 248
- Kamila Konotop (UKR): 236
- Maude Charron (CAN): 236
- Yenny Alvarez (COL): 234
- Kuo Hsing-Chun (TPE): 232
- Anyelin Venegas (VEN): 229
- Elreen Ann Ando (PHI): 228
- Rafiatu Lawal (NGR): 227
- Janeth Gomez Valdivia (MEX): 223
- Lucrezia Magistris (ITA): 217
Caine Wilkes
- Gold: Luo Shifang (CHN)
- Silver: Maude Charron (CAN)
- Bronze: Kuo Hsing-Chun (TPE)
“China is the clear front-runner once again, but I like Charron for second place,” notes Wilkes. “She’s gained a lot of momentum heading into the Olympics and is incredibly consistent.”
“Third place might go to Konotop from Ukraine, but I think Hsing-Chun might show up ready for a big clean & jerk. I could see her going big, since this is possibly her final Olympics.”
BarBend
- Gold: Luo Shifang (CHN)
- Silver: Kuo Hsing-Chun (TPE)
- Bronze: Maude Charron (CAN)
We agree with Wilkes almost uniformly, save for one distinction. Hsing-Chun is one of the most accomplished and tenured athletes in women’s weightlifting ever. Approaching the sunset of her career, we sense she’s played things close to her chest to stay healthy and in the conversation until Paris, where she’ll drop the hammer one last time for a silver medal before retiring.
Wilkes is right about Charron, though — she’s got one of the highest rates of successful lifts of any female weightlifter in Paris and has only trended upward since her historic gold-medal finish in Tokyo at 64 kilos.
Charron won the Women’s 64-kilogram event in Tokyo with a 236-kilogram Total. Come the end of the Paris qualification cycle and she put up the same Total while five kilograms lighter; an extraordinary feat for a weightlifter at this level.
Women’s 71-Kilogram
- Olivia Reeves (USA): 268
- Angie Palacios Dajomes (ECU): 261
- Loredana Toma (ROU): 256
- Vanessa Sarno (PHI): 249
- Naema Said (EGY): 246
- Chen Wen-Huei (TPE): 246
- Mari Sanchez Perinan (COL): 244
- Siuzanna Valodzka (AIN): 242
- Joy Eze (NGR): 239
- Amanda Da Costa (BRA): 238
Caine Wilkes
- Gold: Olivia Reeves (USA)
- Silver: Angie Palacios-Dajomes (ECU)
- Bronze: Loredana Toma (ROU)
“Olivia has a great shot at gold. I don’t see anyone giving her a real challenge in the 71-kilogram session. She’ll just keep doing what she does, hitting personal records decisively on the platform,” says Wilkes.
He continues, saying, “…neither Palacios-Dajomes nor Toma have hit their top Totals recently, both are experienced weightlifters who will show up ready to do what it takes.”
BarBend
- Gold: Olivia Reeves (USA)
- Silver: Angie Palacios-Dajomes (ECU)
- Bronze: Vanessa Sarno (PHI)
We’d bet the house on Reeves winning the Paris Olympics. Beyond that, Palacios-Dajomes is the only non-Asian woman weightlifter to hold a Senior world record (121 kilograms in the snatch) at the closure of the qualification period.
But for third, we’re going to cast our vote for Sarno. While a superstar in the world of weightlifting, Toma has stumbled since her big day at the 2022 World Weightlifting Championships, only totaling above 240 kilograms one time since then.
On the other hand, Sarno is only moving upward. Exactly one year prior to Paris, she Totaled 216 kilograms weighing 66 at the Asian Junior Championships. Six months after that, she set her quad-best result of 249 at the IWF Grand Prix II in December of last year.
Women’s 81-Kilogram
- Neisi Dajomes (ECU): 269
- Sara Samir Ahmed (EGY): 268
- Solfrid Koanda (NOR): 266
- Eileen Cikamatana (AUS): 263
- Kim Suhyeon (KOR): 256
- Ayamey Damiana Medina Roca (CUB): 254
- Laura Amaro (BRA): 253
- Yudelina Mejia Peguero (DOM): 252
- Ankhtsetseg Munkhjantsan (MGL): 243
- Rigina Adashbaeva (UZB): 243
Caine Wilkes
- Gold: Neisi Dajomes-Barrera (ECU)
- Silver: Solfrid Koanda (NOR)
- Bronze: Sara Samir Ahmed (EGY)
Wilkes: “This is a tough class to call. Many of the top lifters here have hit their stride just in time for Paris. I like Koanda for second place — most of her performances were in the 87-kilo class, but I think she can go for a big clean & jerk in Paris.”
“Ahmed hit her 268 early in the quad, and I don’t know if she’s ready for a Total like that. I also think Australia’s Cikamatana is a dark horse candidate, as she’s steadily crept up her Total throughout the quad,” Wilkes notes.
BarBend
- Gold: Neisi Dajomes-Barrera (ECU)
- Silver: Solfrid Koanda (NOR)
- Bronze: Sara Samir Ahmed (EGY)
We are in full agreement with Wilkes here. Expect the 81-kilogram category to possibly offer the most contentious, back-and-forth weightlifting of any Women’s category in Paris. Koanda is likely stronger than Dajomes-Barrera, but she lacks experience compared to Ecuador’s first female Olympic Champion ever.
Women’s +81-Kilogram
- Li Wenwen (CHN): 325
- Park Hyejeong (KOR): 296
- Emily Campbell (GBR): 287
- Chaidee Duangaksorn (THA): 286
- Mary Theisen-Lappen (USA): 283
- Lisseth Ayovi Cabezas (ECU): 276
- Halima Abbas (EGY): 275
- Naryury Perez Reveron (VEN): 267
- Iuniarra Sipaia (SAM): 267
- Crismery Santana Peguero (DOM): 263
Caine Wilkes
- Gold: Li Wenwen (CHN)
- Silver: Park Hyejeong (KOR)
- Bronze: Chaidee Duangaskorn (THA)
“Once again, Wenwen from China is the clear favorite with her 30-kilogram Total lead on the rest of the division,” says Wilkes. “Park also holds a sizeable lead in second place.”
“The bronze medal could go to Campbell of Great Britain, Thailand’s Duangaskorn, or Theisen-Lappen of Team USA,” Wilkes continues. “I’m choosing Duangaskorn mostly because Campbell has been battling injuries of late.”
“Theisen-Lappen is the dark horse here. She has a sizeable clean & jerk, but she needs a solid snatch day to be in medal contention.”
BarBend
- Gold: Li Wenwen (CHN)
- Silver: Park Hyejeong (KOR)
- Bronze: Mary Theisen-Lappen (USA)
Wilkes is on point, but we’re going to endorse Theisen-Lappen for bronze, though it truly is anyone’s game. Duangaskorn is formidable, but has Totaled 280 or less in 2024 and 2023, and has only clean & jerked 160 once.
Theisen-Lappen lacks consistency in the snatch, but is extremely powerful in the clean & jerk. She lifted 166 kilograms at Worlds in ‘23, but a tough jury call invalidated the attempt. Moreover, she’s also recently hit a whopping 183 kilograms in the jerk from blocks. If Theisen-Lappen bags a snatch at or above 120, she’ll do what she has to do to win a medal later on.
2024 Olympics Weightlifting Schedule
Disagree with our or Wilkes’ picks? Well, you won’t have to wait long to find out whether what we’re prophesying comes to pass. The 2024 Olympics in Paris, France, officially begin on Jul. 26, 2024. However, weightlifting events won’t start until Aug. 7.
Here’s the full schedule for all weightlifting events at the 2024 Olympics. Times are listed in Eastern Standard Time and all scheduling is subject to change.
Wednesday, August 7
- 9:00AM: Men 61KG
- 1:30PM: Women 49KG
Thursday, August 8
- 9:00AM: Women 59KG
- 1:30PM: Men 73KG
Friday, August 9
- 9:00AM: Men 89KG
- 1:30PM: Women 71KG
Saturday, August 10
- 5:30AM: Men 102KG
- 10:00AM: Women 81KG
- 2:30PM: Men +102KG
Sunday, August 11
- 5:30AM: Women +81KG
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Featured Image courtesy of USA Weightlifting
