Buying or Selling? Our Writers Predict 2024 CrossFit Games Outcomes, Part 2
Editor’s note: You can read part one of this article here.
The 2024 CrossFit Games begin in a matter of hours now.
- More events have been released, and bets are being made on who will succeed in Dave Castro’s individual programming return.
We still don’t know the whole picture, so let’s do another “what-if” about what might happen this year once the competition starts.
Some of our favorite analysts in the CrossFit space returned to determine if they are buying or selling these possible CrossFit Games outcomes.
Reminder: Head over to this page during the CrossFit Games for live results and our updated leaderboard.
[Related: 2024 CrossFit Games Individual and Team Rosters]
Buy or Sell – Three Different Women Will Wear the Leader’s Jersey
Scotty Freymond (Writer, Morning Chalk Up) – Sell
Grace Walton, who has a swimming background, has the best chance of beating Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr in Event 1: Run Swim. This would give her the leader’s jersey for one event.
- As of this article, we don’t know the rest of the events on day one (or much about the weekend), and I don’t think it really matters.
- Let’s say Event 2 is an odd object workout that Horvath wins — Toomey-Orr should have enough of a buffer from the first event to take the overall lead (if she doesn’t have it already).
And once Toomey-Orr has the lead, taking it from her will be like taking candy from a…well, a great white shark.
- The most likely scenario, though, is that only one woman wears the white and red the entire weekend, and she lives in Nashville.
[Related: 2024 CrossFit Games: Everything We Know (So Far)]
Dave Charlton (Co-founder, Fran Lung Analytics & Writer, Morning Chalk Up) – Sell
I see two likely scenarios.
- Tia wins Event 1 and then goes wire-to-wire in the white jersey like in 2021.
- Or Tia wins Event 1, and Laura Horvath claws her way back when things start to get heavy on the weekend to take the lead on Sunday.
Either way, the white jersey isn’t going to find its way to the other 38 women competing in Fort Worth.
Mike Halpin (Founder, Known & Knowable, and Morning Chalk Up contributor) – Buy
Wow, this one was tough!
Three is the sweet spot here for an over/under, and I am taking the three but don’t feel good about it.
- In 2022, four athletes wore the jersey — Haley Adams, Emma Lawson, and Mal O’Brien — and then it went to Toomey-Orr by the time the Capitol was over and she never let go.
- In 2023, three athletes wore the jersey. Although Toomey-Orr, Adams, and O’Brien were not in the mix, we still saw it get passed back and forth between Lawson and Alexis Raptis, back to Lawson, and then to Horvath for the final two events.
Three or four athletes wearing the jersey is possible, but I am hesitant with Run Swim at the start.
- Toomey-Orr is the odds-on favorite to win that event, with six event wins in swimming, including the 2017 Run Swim Run.
- She may put on the “white and red” and never take it off, but I think the top of the women’s field has risen while Toomey-Orr has been away, and it will likely get traded a time or two before the weekend is over.
Buy or Sell – No American Woman Finishes on the Podium
Scotty Freymond – Sell
My predictions actually don’t reflect this, as I have the top four women being Toomey-Orr, Horvath, Lawson, and Gabriela Migała.
- The U.S. is well represented with Arielle Loewen (third last year), Alex Gazan (fifth last year), Alexis Raptis (sixth last year), Danielle Brandon (ninth last year), Haley Adams (best finish of fourth), and Brooke Wells (best finish of fifth).
It just takes one of these women breaking through to make this a sell, and Loewen already proved she can do it with her phenomenal performance last year.
In my opinion, Toomey-Orr and Horvath are locked in the top two spots.
- The battle for third will be one to watch and should be much closer than last year (Loewen was a comfortable 95 points ahead of Migała in fourth).
[Related: Will Any CrossFit Games Rookies Finish in the Top 10 in 2024?]
Dave Charlton – Buy
The top two spots are going to Toomey-Orr and Horvath.
- That leaves the final podium spot open to Americans (Alexis Raptis, Alex Gazan, and Arielle Loewen) or non-Americans (Emma Lawson and Gabriela Migała).
- I’ll take the Lawson and Migała combo for the third spot. That duo finished third and fourth, respectively, behind Horvath and Toomey-Orr at the Rogue Invitational in October.
Mike Halpin – Buy
Toomey-Orr, Horvath, and, for the first time, Gabi Migała.
- “Iron sharpens Iron,” and Migala and Horvath have been side by side for a while now, both training with previous Games champ Ben Smith. While an American woman won’t make the podium, it will be darn close.
- I think we see a real fight for third through seventh place between Gabi Migała, Emma Lawson, Alex Gazan, Alexis Raptis, and 2023 third-place finisher Arielle Loewen.
In the end, I have Migała and Lawson going third and fourth, keeping some distance between the podium and the women from the U.S.
Buy or Sell – There Will Be No New Podium Finishers on Either Side
Scotty Freymond – Sell
This happened last in 2021, and we will go another year with at least one fresh face.
- Six men with previous podium finishes will battle it out for the top three spots. Dallin Pepper should also be in the mix, and my dark horse podium pick for the men is Jelle Hoste. But the top of the men’s field is absolutely stacked this year.
[Related: 2024 CrossFit Games Preview: Team Division]
I believe five of the six athletes standing on the podium at the end of the weekend will be repeat customers.
However, the bronze medal for the women will be awarded to a newcomer to the podium.
- The question is, who? My picks, in order of likelihood, are Migała, Gazan, Raptis, Brandon, Adams, and Wells. My dark horse pick for the women is Emma Tall.
Dave Charlton – Sell
On the women’s side, it comes down to third place.
- I’ll be cheering for my fellow countrywoman, Emma Lawson, to earn a spot on the podium, but I think it’s Migała’s year.
- Migała and Laura Horvath looked like they were in a class of their own at points in the French Throwdown.
- I also think Alexis Raptis could make a run at the Games this year after an impressive second-place finish at the Syndicate Crown.
On the men’s side, I see seven men in the running for the title of Fittest on Earth.
- That includes: Jeffrey Adler, Roman Khrennikov, Ricky Garard, Patrick Vellner, Justin Medeiros, Dallin Pepper, and Brent Fikowski.
- Out of the seven, only Pepper has yet to stand on the podium. Pepper is only 22 years old, three years younger than Medeiros, and over seven years younger than the rest of the group, so youth is on his side. He jumped from 19th in 2022 to fifth at the Games last year. It’s not a leap to think he can gain a couple more spots for a podium finish this year.
This looks like a risky choice when you break it down, but I think either Gabriela Migała, Alexis Raptis, or Dallin Pepper will find themselves on the podium at the end of the Games.
Mike Halpin – Sell
Welp… I telegraphed that one in my last response, so it loses some thunder.
On the men’s side, I’d be buying this as I have a toss-up of Adler, Khrennikov, Garard, and Mederios all in podium contention.
- However, on the women’s side, I think Migała has what it takes to go one spot better than last year. After a second-place finish at the Europe Semifinal, she can take the third-place spot by a tight margin from the North American athletes mentioned above.
- And, Toomey-Orr and Horvath will duke it out for first and second, just like they have a few times before.
More 2024 CrossFit Games Coverage
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- Will One of These 3 Veteran Women Finally Get to the CrossFit Games Podium This Summer?
Featured image: @crossfitgames / Instagram