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Who’s Winning Which CrossFit Events at the 2022 Rogue Invitational?

Predictions for who is likely to win and who could pull upsets in Round Rock, TX.

Written by Brian Friend
Last updated on January 27th, 2023

The 2022 Rogue Invitational released the descriptions for seven of their 10 scheduled CrossFit workouts on Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2022. Without knowing the exact details of each event, below is a look at each of the announced workouts with analyses of the crucial elements of each (read: what it will take to win that particular workout).

Additionally, there are predictions of each workout’s winner and potential darkhorses to watch in the Individual Men’s and Individual Women’s divisions. Check it out:

Editor’s Note: This article is an op-ed. The views expressed herein are the author’s and don’t necessarily reflect the views of BarBend. Claims, assertions, opinions, and quotes have been sourced exclusively by the author.

[Related: CrossFit Games Champion Rich Froning Announces Retirement from Teams Division]

Event One — TBA

The details are unknown for this workout, but we assume it will be a lengthy GORUCK event, which also happens to be one of the title sponsors of the competition. In emails to athletes, Rogue told competitors to bring trail running shoes and long pants, indicating perhaps a run through the rough Texas brush.

Rogue has included a ruck run as part of the opening event in two of its three previous iterations, with the lone exception being the 2020 online version.

Favorites: Ricky Garard/Gabriela Migała

It’s no coincidence that these two are our picks after winning the “Capitol” event at the 2022 NOBULL CrossFit Games. Garard is the best runner in his division, and Migała is perhaps the most underrated runner in the field, devoid of athletes like Tia-Clair Toomey, Kristi Eramo O’Connell, Emily Rolfe, and Haley Adams.

Darkhorses: Lazar Đukić & Roman Khrennikov/Emma Lawson

Đukić and Khrennikov aren’t too far from Garard in running ability, though neither is Justin Medeiros, who famously kept company with Mathew Fraser during the 2020 Games “Ranch Loop.”

We are sticking with the Serbian and Russian as two potential athletes who can beat Garard. Lawson’s running ability is underrated, as she was second best against this field in Shuttle to Overhead part A at the 2022 Games (only Migała was better).

Event Two — Ski Bar

  • 20 Bar Muscle-Ups
  • Ski Erg — Men: 40 calories | Women: 32 calories
  • 80 GHD Sit-Ups
  • Ski Erg — Men: 40 calories | Women: 32 calories
  • 20 Bar Muscle-Ups

This workout will come down to GHD cycling and shoulder stamina. The ski-erg will tire the shoulders, making that final set of 20 bar muscle-ups a race of who can go unbroken versus who will take breaks.

Favorites: Saxon Panchik/Kara Saunders

Panchik won a similar event in “Up and Over” at the Games and shouldn’t have any issue with either the muscle-ups or GHDs. Saunders is equally strong in both movements, especially since switching to Mayhem training last year, which emphasizes both elements.

Darkhorses: Lazar Đukić/Jacqueline Dahlstrøm

Both of these athletes struggled at the 2021 Rogue, but this event offers them a chance to show off what makes them some of the top European athletes in the world. Đukić, another Mayhem athlete, makes easy work of GHDs and locked up the event win at the Jackie Pro primarily due to his bar muscle-up prowess.

Dahlstrom’s gymnastics will finally be showcased in a workout that doesn’t have a heavy barbell included in it. When that is the case, she’s generally amongst the best in the world on the women’s side.

Event Three — Back Attack

Five-four-three-two-one reps of:

  • Back Squat (from rack) — Men: 405 pounds | Women: 275 pounds

25-20-15-10-five reps of:

  • Box Jump-overs — Men: 24-inch box | Women: 20-inch box

This simple couplet will test how recovered the athletes’ legs are from what we suspect will be a ruck run on day one. The 405-pound/275-pound back squat is just a warm-up for what will be 75 total box jump overs.

Favorites: Jeffrey Adler/Laura Horvath

This workout seems designed for Adler and Horvath. Both athletes won the “Back Nine” event at the Games this past summer. Adler also locked up the worldwide win on Open workout 20.4, which featured box jumps. 

Darkhorses: Jorge Fernandez/Olivia Kerstetter

These two Rogue online qualifier athletes could make this event their moment and show they belong in the Individual field. Both are unquestionably strong. Fernandez front squatted 440 pounds at the 2022 Games in the “Strong” Event, while Kerstetter famously had the heaviest snatch for any girl or woman across ALL divisions in 2021.

Event Four — DT With a Spin

Five rounds for time of:

  • Echo Bike — 15 calories
  • 12 Deadlifts — Men: 155 pounds | Women: 105 pounds
  • Nine Hang Power Cleans — Men: 155 pounds | Women: 105 pounds
  • Six Push Jerks — Men: 155 pounds | Women: 105 pounds

A classic CrossFit workout but with the brutal Rogue Echo Bike. How fast can athletes go, and can they maintain what will be a violent pace across all five rounds?

Favorites: Roman Khrennikov/Annie Thorisdottir

Both athletes are tremendously powerful. We saw Khrennikov do well in the”Echo Press” event at the Games in 2022. Thorisdottir took second place in Event Nine of the 2021 Games, which incorporated an Echo Bike. Cycling this weight is no issue for them either.

Khrennikov manhandled the kettlebell clean & jerks during the “Alpaca” event at the 2022 Games. Thorisdottir was fourth at the Games in Heavy DT back in 2015 and seventh on Double DT in 2016.

Darkhorses: Samuel Kwant/Alexis Raptis

Speaking of DT at the Games, Kwant was the winner for the Men as a 20-year-old rookie in 2016, edging out Fraser by four seconds. Raptis was the winner of “Echo Press” at the Games showing both power on the bike and great upper-body pressing strength. These athletes have the blend of power and fitness to make this one of their better finishes on the weekend.

Event Five — The Turtle

  • Axle Bar Lunge — Men: 155 pounds | Women: 105 pounds
  • Monkey Bar Traverse
  • Hill Run Bag Pull — Men: 155 pounds | Women: 105 pounds
  • Monkey Bar Traverse
  • Axle Bar Lunge — Men: 155 pounds | Women: 105 pounds

Although we know the workout design, there are many unanswered questions. The lunge is straightforward, but monkey bars have rarely been seen in competition, and with Rogue at the helm, there are an unlimited number of ways we could imagine those playing out. There is a “hill sprint/bag pull” section to this workout, and while the weights are listed, precisely what that will look like is another mystery.

Favorites: Justin Medeiros/Laura Horvath

Without knowing everything, we are defaulting to the fittest athletes in the field from last year’s Games. If the monkey bars are a significant factor, it won’t affect these two. Medeiros has been amongst the best in the field at high-volume chest-to-bar pull-ups over the past two seasons. Horvath is famous for her grip strength due to her rock climbing background. If the bag pull is critical, we don’t foresee any trip up here for either of them. They are workhorses who can find a way to get the job done. 

Darkhorses: Cole Sager/Gabriela Migała

Sager and Migała have an event win to their credit at the CrossFit Games, which involves outside-the-box-style workouts. Sager won “The Battleground” event in 2018. He was the best in the field at the Rescue Randy drag, which should crossover well to the bag pull.

Migała won the Capitol event this past season and should manage the lunges and bag well; if the monkey bars are challenging, however, it could slow her down. 

Event Six — TBA

You need to look twice, but Event Six is missing from the announced events. We assume there will be one, but thus far have no details.

Event Seven — Texas Oak

Rogue teased this on their Instagram on October 12. It was unknown if it would be part of a timed workout or a stand-alone lift. Many athletes have found logs to practice with since that announcement, but like at the Games with the “Sandbag Ladder” event, strength and technique will prevail here. 

Favorites: Jeffrey Adler/Dani Speegle

Adler has four event wins to his credit at the CrossFit Games, all on strength-based events. While he didn’t perform well with the sandbag, his overhead (first on Shuttle to Overhead Part B) and core strength (first on Back Nine) should propel him to a top finish. Speegle won the sandbag event at the Games and is definitely amongst the strongest women in this field; expect another spectacle from her here. 

Darkhorses: Jayson Hopper/Danielle Brandon

This workout has an unknown element, but Hopper and Brandon are good in shoulder-to-head events. Hopper was fourth on Shuttle to Overhead Part B at the Games (he was also amongst the last four standing in the Sandbag Ladder). Brandon was second to Toomey on Shuttle to Overhead Part B and is one of the rare elite athletes who prefer the push or power jerk over the split jerk, which may be advantageous here.

Event Eight — Snatch & Press

Three rounds for time of:

This is likely a repeat from a workout at the 2019 Rogue Invitational with the same title. So far, there are two unknowns: will the deficit parallette handstand push-ups be strict? Will there be a minimum work requirement?

In 2019 the answer to both of those was yes, and as a result, two women, one of which was Horvath, were “DQed” from the entire competition for failing to meet the minimum work requirement. The answer to these questions matters a lot, and the expectation is that it will be the same this time.

Favorites: Björgvin Karl Guðmundsson/Alexis Raptis

Regardless of the answer to those questions, Guðmundsson and Raptis are clear favorites for this. Guðmundsson won the workout at Rouge each of the last two years, with strict handstand push-ups.

As previously mentioned, Raptis won Echo Press at the Games. However, she also won Push Pull 2.0 ‘14 at the West Coast Classic semifinal in 2021; that workout had strict deficit handstand push-ups, and she earned that win despite Bethany Shadburne and Kari Pearce in the field.

Darkhorses: Scott Tetlow/Dani Speegle

An exciting combo here because while Tetlow’s advantage in this workout is his range of motion and strength, Speegle’s advantage is that she’s great at these movements. In 2019, when this event first happened, Speegle took third behind Toomey and Pearce. Expect this to be another good event for her and probably the best one of the weekend for Tetlow.

Event Nine — The Goblet

Seven rounds for time of:

Forty-Nine ring muscle-ups are a lot for most people, but it’s an expectation for athletes at this level in recent seasons. The goblet squats will surely add up, but most people will grind them. The run in the middle is of intrigue here. There isn’t much running so far in this competition, so expect it to impact this event.

Favorites: Ricky Garard/Emma Lawson

One of the more challenging workouts to narrow the field down to a winner here, but this feels like a Garard-style workout — he was second on Shuttle to Overhead Part A (running only) and third on Up and Over event with high-volume muscle-ups at the Games.

Lawson also has the best combination of finishes on those two workouts from the athletes in the field at Rogue. She was ninth on Shuttle to Overhead Part A and third on Up and Over. She’ll do well in several events, but expect this to be her standout performance. 

Darkhorses: Patrick Vellner/Anikha Greer

Vellner is the most accomplished gymnast in the Men’s division and always does well on muscle-up-heavy workouts. He won event two handily at the 2021 Games, which had 48 total muscle ups in the middle of it.

Greer doesn’t have any Games experience, but against several Games athletes at Wodapalooza in 2021, she won the “Celebrate Ten” workout, which had 25 ring muscle-ups and low-weight, high-rep overhead squats in the back half.

Event 10 — TBA

There will be a 10th and final event, but no details have been released. The field at the 2022 Rogue Invitational is incredible. If you haven’t seen the entire Men’s roster and Women’s roster, check them out below:

Male Athletes

Female Athletes

The 2022 Rogue Invitational starts Thursday, October 27, 2022, in Round Rock, Texas, will run for four days, and will conclude on Sunday, October 30, 2022. A majority of the events are taking place at the Dell Diamond field.

Featured image: @rogueinvitational on Instagram